Why formulas fail here
Automated models average neighborhoods; the corridor has stretches instead — and within them, properties differing by the exact features that carry value: usable versus paper acreage, bank quality, system age, shop caliber, access character. Averaging that heterogeneity produces confident nonsense.
Appraisers face the same scarcity, which is why supported pricing — with documentation and comp context assembled — serves sellers twice: at listing and again at appraisal defense.
How I actually price
I walk the property first: systems, land, water, condition, the intangibles buyers will feel. Then the comps — not just their sheets but their realities, most of which I know personally from this corridor’s recent history. Adjustments follow with stated reasoning you can interrogate.
The result is a number with an argument attached — honest enough to occasionally disappoint, sturdy enough to negotiate from all the way to closing.
Local rule of thumb: A price you can explain survives negotiation; a price you hoped for funds the buyer’s.